Ebene Magazine – Dollar choppy, stocks stable despite ISM miss


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The US dollar is still looking for direction. The reserve currency took a hit yesterday after an unexpectedly soft ISM production poll and another reminder from Fed Chairman Powell that the world’s largest economy is still out of the woods, only to bounce back on Tuesday morning. While the ISM report fell short of the rosy forecasts, the headline index stayed at elevated levels and the details were quite encouraging, suggesting that due to supply chain disruptions, manufacturers are essentially unable to keep up with rising demand. The Markit poll for April reiterated the same topic as production constraints have prevented many companies from meeting rising demand.

All of this fits into the narrative that is currently driving the dollar – the rebound in the US is starting to accelerate thanks to an ocean of federal spending, but the improvement isn’t spectacular enough for the Fed to consider reducing its liquidity dose. This implies that it is likely too early for a strong dollar rally, reflecting the strength of US fundamentals relative to other economies.

However, in a few months, the Fed could hopefully see its wounds once the job market is in place heals, change gears and the dollar revaluation happen quickly when yields rise again, especially if market participants are still in net shortage by then. For now, all eyes are on the week’s pay slips release.

It will be a pivotal week for the pound, which yesterday outperformed all of its main rivals. The Bank of England meets on Thursday and there are a lot of rumors that policymakers may be signaling a slowdown in their asset purchases due to the smooth reopening of the economy and the hugely successful adoption of vaccines.

The catch is that political risk can dampen waning excitement in the markets. Voters in Scotland will vote for their new parliament on the same day and opinion polls suggest a majority for independent parties. If so, the battle for a second Scottish referendum could begin, causing Prime Minister Johnson a headache that could ultimately result in investors calculating a political risk premium back into the pound.

It was a mixed session on the equity markets. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones offset some gains despite tech-intensive Nasdaq falling as investors turned away from some « growth stories » with inflated valuations. It is noticeable that some of these growth names have had strong success even after promising results have been reported. This shows how high the market’s expectations have been for this profitable season.

The commodities industry saw the gold price battle this week, fueling the retreat of US yields. We are almost in the final stages of the bullion cycle, where inflation begins to accelerate, but the Fed is still a little longer on QE gas, keeping real interest rates under pressure and allowing the yellow metal to flourish. The endgame is still bearish as the Fed will be forced to downsize the road, but there could be a few months of glowing performance for gold in the meantime.

After all, the RBA didn’t say much overnight. It kept its political attitudes and language largely unchanged, signaling that all major decisions will be made at the July meeting. The reaction in the Aussie was subdued.

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dollar choppy, stocks stable despite ISM miss

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